نشریه مدلسازی اقتصاد سنجی
سال ششم شماره 4 (پیاپی 23، پاییز 1400)

Mutual funds are expanding as one of the financial intermediaries. But the presence of asymmetric information in financial markets and the possibility of encouraging fund managers to make risky selections can jeopardize the interests of investors. Financial supervision by controlling the riskiness of funds is one of the ways to support investors. In this paper, the effects of financial supervision components on the risk of 18 Equity mutual funds in Iran during the period 2010-2019 are examined. According to the nature of the dependent variable, the credit risk of the mutual funds, model estimation and data analysis has been done by a Panel Quantile Regression Approach. The results show that the four components of profitability, liquidity quality, asset quality and market risk sensitivity as components of financial supervision have a negative and significant effect on the risk of low and high risk quantile funds. Also, the effect of two components of management quality and sensitivity to market risks on the risk of the middle risk quantile has been negative and significant. Therefore, the regulator of these funds should follow the formulation and implementation of regulatory rules based on financial solvency with emphasis on these components, especially in high risk quantile funds, in order to further protect the interests of investors.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of trade in cultural products on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Shanghai Group member countries during the period 2004-2017. After examining the significance of the data and their co-integration with the Kao co-integration test, the model is estimated using the panel data method. Estimates show that assuming other factors are constant, the export, import and the volume of trade of these products of cultural products over time has a positive and significant effect on the GDP of the Shanghai Group countries. So that with a one percent increase in export, imports and trade volume of cultural products, 0.02, 0.07 and 0.05 percent of GDP, respectively, will increase. Therefore, this effect can be increased by adopting appropriate policies such as marketing and providing a suitable environment for industries to compete and increase their efficiency.

Corruption is an abnormal economic, political and cultural phenomenon that more or less exists within all countries and is a major obstacle to the growth and development. So, the main aim in this reseach is to investigate the role of corruption control in the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on economic growth. Doing so a sample including Iran and 19 member countries of the Middle East and North Africa during the period 2002-2019 and Panel Method of Generalized Moment (PGMM) and Panel Vector Auto Regression (PVAR) are used. The results of PGMM model estimation show a positive and significant relationship between corruption control variables as well as the cross effect of corruption control and liquidity and cross effect of corruption control and final government spending on economic growth. While, without corruption control, liquidity variables and final government spending have had a negative impact on economic growth. In PVAR estimation, the effect of variables on economic growth has been investigated using the impulse response function and variance decomposition. Comparing the results of estimating PGMM and PVAR methods show that in both methods the control of corruption and liquidity intersection, control of corruption and final government expenditure intersection, and the index of corruption control on economic growth are positive while the effect of final consumption of government and liquidity without control of corruption is negative. Also, the effect of gross fixed capital formation as a control variable of the model has been positive and significant.

The main purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of central bank independence on the establishment of Political Business Cycles (PBC) in Iran. For this purpose, the modified model of Shi and Svensson (2006) in the framework of the Smooth Transition Autoregressive Regression (STAR) during the period of 1978-2018 has been used. The results, in addition to confirming the linear relationship between the variables, showed that in the election period, for the values ​​of PBC (ratio of budget deficit to GDP) above the threshold, central bank independence, a positive and significant effect, and for values ​​below threshold has had a significant negative effect on PBC. Another finding of this paper is that the sum of the coefficients of central bank independence in the two regimes indicates the negative effect of increasing central bank independence on PBC. Therefore, it is suggested that, in addition to restricting the use of oil revenues, increasing the central bank's independence in the true sense of the word should be considered in order to gradually reduce PBC.

The growing wave of Iranian emigration has raised the question of how the process of migration to the mainly developed destinations, has an impact on the country’s foreign trade pattern. It seems that the migration of Iranians has caused serious losses for the country and the technical, scientific and economic capacities required by the country have been provided to the migrating countries, especially the developed ones, and in return, the emigrating of Iranians, who generally have knowledge, labor and capital, has led to the country's economic decline. Since intra-industry trade is sensitive to the components of technology and competitiveness, the main purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that the outflow and one-way migration has caused a decline in Iran’s intra-industry trade. For this purpose, the gravity panel data model with a logistic transformation for Iran with the main destinations of Iranian emigrants in the period of 2000-2018 has been used. The findings of the present study confirm the negative and significant effect of the unilateral trend of Iranian migration to the main destinations on intra industry trade of Iran with these countries. Accordingly, in order to prevent serious losses, it is strongly recommended that the worrying process of migration should be considered by policymakers and in this regard, a specific strategy in relation to international migration be established in national interests.

This study presents a model of regulation of investment costs of Iranian electricity distribution companies through penalty and rewards of these companies. Within this framework, overinvestment can result in partial disallowance of investment costs. The results of surveying 39 Iranian electricity distribution companies over the period of 2011-2017 indicate that using the proposed regulatory model, it is possible to achieve an optimal level of investment in the entire electricity distribution network by reallocation of investment among small, medium and large companies, without lowering the efficiency of the industry.